tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-56562192011-09-05T04:28:35.657+01:00A combustible mix of politics, economics, history...and liberty! Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.comBlogger4291100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1129687072257445102005-10-19T02:56:00.000+01:002005-10-19T02:59:34.386+01:00

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1108139425541486552005-02-11T16:22:00.000Z2005-02-11T20:42:16.460Z

One of the aspects of the lighter-than-air airships I didn't cover in yesterday's Whiskey and Gunpowder was the use of huge airships for shipping and transportation. The program is called Mobilus. You can find out more here, where the Office of Force Transformation invites you to imagine a world where.... A new form of airlift dramatically increases the overall capacity of the transportation

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1108138362160112872005-02-11T15:59:00.000Z2005-02-11T16:12:42.163Z

Some lowlights to highlight the dismal chart below: The trade deficit grew 24% last year, from $496.5 billion in 2003 to $617.7 billion in 2004Imports from China were up 30% to $196.7 billion. Exports were up 22.6%, but only to $34. 7 billionThe weaker dollar relative to the euro increased exports to Europe by 13.5% from $155.2 billion to $176.2 billion. But imports grew nearly as fast at 11.6%

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1108137489033896872005-02-11T15:35:00.000Z2005-02-11T15:58:09.036Z

The report from the Office of Management and Budget I refer to below mentions the exposure regional banks have to the GSEs through ownership of mortgage backed securities (MBS). There are two indexes made up of banking stocks. One is the Philadelphia Banking Index (BKX). The other is a HOLDR from Merrill Lynch called the Regional Bank HOLDR (RKH). RKH has the following holdings, which are nearly

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1108135074376159822005-02-11T15:15:00.000Z2005-02-11T15:17:54.376Z

From the "Analytical Perspectives," which I mention below, comes this graphic showing just how large and leveraged the GSEs have become. The MBS that aren't retained are out there somewhere, sitting on the balance sheets of regional banks, or in the portfolio of an insurance company, or a pension fund. Ticking.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1108126930619888272005-02-11T12:44:00.000Z2005-02-11T13:02:10.623Z

Each year the Bush White House produces a budget, it also produces a report called "Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States Government." As the title suggests, it's a real page turner. But if you're patient and you look hard, you will come across some gems. In this year's version, I found an entire section on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs.)

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104921200573593972005-01-05T10:33:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:33:20.573Z

War, Finance, and the State, together in one place. The Bank of England is on the left. The Royal Exchange on the right. And in the background the highrises of the City and the London Stock market. It's the convergence of war finance. The picture suggests a story, which I've told in my Whiskey and Gunpowder essay. More pictures are below. The object of this excursion into the City was to visit

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104920454762168242005-01-05T10:20:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:20:54.763Z

Here is a pretty thing. A statue of Wellington, and behind it a memorial to the men of London who died in the Great War for King and Country.  

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104920371509487782005-01-05T10:19:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:19:31.510Z

The inscription on the monument is to the "immortal honour of the officers, non-commissioned officers and men of London who served their King and Empire in the Great War 1914-1919. This memorial id dedicated in proud and grateful recognition by the city and county of London. Their name liveth for everyone." 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104920180210425392005-01-05T10:16:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:16:20.210Z

This plaque at the base of the statue reads: Raised by public subscription at the Mansion House in the Peace year 1919 during the mayorality of the Hon. Sir Horace Brooks Marshall. " 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104920086169184152005-01-05T10:14:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:14:46.170Z

Towering over Threadneedle Street. More quote from inside the museum: During the wars against France, the drain on the Bank's gold reserves led in 1797 to the suspension of the Bank's committment to convert its notes into gold." 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919983647386692005-01-05T10:13:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:13:03.646Z

The BOE from head on. More quotes from the displays inside the museum: In the past, people placed their trust in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. Today, paper money is accepted with the same confidence." 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919696745841142005-01-05T10:08:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:08:16.746Z

This former goldsmith's shop near the bank appeared to be closed up. Or just very secretive. Fair enough. The goldsmith's WERE banks before there were banks. They accepted deposits of gold and sliver and issued notes redeemable for the same gold and silver. It worked pretty well, up until the point the King would come and confiscate all the gold to pay for a war. Goldsmith's notes were eventually

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919408300188442005-01-05T10:03:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:03:28.300Z

Busses headed up Threadneedle toward the Bank, bathed in the weak glow of a late December sun. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919291895707182005-01-05T10:01:00.000Z2005-01-05T10:01:31.896Z

I include this picture only to show you how government can often be an ugly parasite, in this case architecturally. A modern monstrosity for the City of London has been grafted on to a rather older building on the right. And in front of that building is some newer facade. Completing the visiual chaos is a red striped tent in front. You can't see it without a close up, but on top of the facade is

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919137757402062005-01-05T09:58:00.001Z2005-01-05T09:58:57.756Z

To redeem the City of London's mistake, is St. Paul's, by Christopher Wren. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104919084471016792005-01-05T09:58:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:58:04.470Z

The Chancery, across the street from the more modern Templar House (see below) is a gorgeous building...built originally for lawyers. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918882002516252005-01-05T09:54:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:54:42.003Z

And across the street the Templar House. Hmm. Anyone seen the national treasure? You can't see him in the picture, but as I was taking it, a security guard walked out of the building to ask me what I was doing. "Taking pictures of the building," I said. "Oh. Okay." 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918788657384952005-01-05T09:53:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:53:08.656Z

The site of at least one residence of Thomas Gresham as you make your way down Holborn street.  

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918744125263082005-01-05T09:52:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:52:24.126Z

And from another angle... 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918713834899552005-01-05T09:51:00.001Z2005-01-05T09:51:53.833Z

As you make your way across Holborn Viaduct looking east, you'll see Gresham's house in the background, with a statue of Commerce leading up to (or in this case, away) from it.  

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918660634061562005-01-05T09:51:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:51:00.633Z

Here's commerce, looking over traffic. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918609258581892005-01-05T09:50:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:50:09.256Z

The modern Gresham's college is not in the same place as the original. But the grashopper, which adorned the Gresham family crest, is still part of the sign. The town of Gresham says Thomas Gresham adopted the symbol as a reminder of his humble beginnings.  

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918258698979252005-01-05T09:44:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:44:18.696Z

Here's a fuzzy view of the interior court of Barnard's Inn, where the College holds its lecture series. The essay I published last week by Avinash Persaud (When Currency Empires Fall) was given in this building. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918115278133562005-01-05T09:41:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:41:55.276Z

Making my way down the street, I crossed Newton street, which happened to be the corner location of the only Goldsmith's shop I saw all day. Coincidence? 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104918016500586632005-01-05T09:40:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:40:16.500Z

Near the British Museum, and after the gold smith's shop, I saw this sign, which seemed to beg some attention. I expect business to be brisk. Notie that it's a government service. Bless them. First they bankrupt us...THEN they bail us out. Well, that's not entirely fair. Destroying the currency isn't the same as incurring debt at the personal level. But reckless financial behavior goes with

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104917892415834912005-01-05T09:38:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:38:12.416Z

One of the first displays I came across (after passing the Insolvency Institute on the way in) was this explanation of electronic money. Apologies for the image quality of this and those below. The light was low and I was shooting through glass display cases. Here's what it says: Plastic cards offer a convenient way of making, recording, or deferring payments by the movement of electronic pulses.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104917492661529622005-01-05T09:31:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:31:32.660Z

I ended the day at the British Museum to pay a return visit to their exhibit on money. It is a room full of irony. It does do a good job of explaining the role of gold and silver as money. But even here, you get less of an explanation than the one provided at the Bank of England. Perhaps to historians, gold's role as money is simply past, and not prologue. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104917371259448912005-01-05T09:29:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:29:31.260Z

The museum's explanation of silver. Noticeably absent, although it was a brief display, was the importance of the silver mines of the New World. The Spanish owned them. And even France, with its vast resource wealth, had more "real assets" than England with her sheep and her pastures. So was it that by the time Issac Newton was done as the Master of the Mint in the Tower of London, all the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104917178024827642005-01-05T09:26:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:26:18.023Z

In case you can't read it through the haze, here's what it says: The supremacy of gold and silver coins has given way to the practicality of paper money and coins of base metals. Now, even their role is being challenged by payments made using plastic cards and computers." No fooling. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104917003930328682005-01-05T09:23:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:23:23.930Z

As you can see, there are many odd displays in this exhibit on money. None can be odder than this out-dated photo and caption, closeups of which are below. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104916919976811672005-01-05T09:21:00.001Z2005-01-05T09:21:59.976Z

Here's a closeup of the...ironic caption that goes with the picture. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104916867772564012005-01-05T09:21:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:21:07.773Z

Here's a cropped version of the original above. You can see it's the sunset hitting the World Trade Center. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104916779960169212005-01-05T09:19:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:19:39.960Z

The cause of so much trouble...and Ben Bernanke's best friend. The Printing Press.  

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104916719512622912005-01-05T09:18:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:18:39.513Z

Sorry for the fuzziness. Shooting through a plate glass window. This is a one million mark note from the great German Hyperinflation period. It didn't have much purchasing power, even with suge a huge nominal value. Today it's just a museum exhibit. Such is the fate of all currencies. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1104916618128229012005-01-05T09:16:00.000Z2005-01-05T09:16:58.126Z

It's a fuzzy picture of a dollar from the past. It might as well be a fuzzy picture of the dollar's future, too. This note, however, was redeemable for gold, unlike today's Federal Reserve Notes, which are redeemable, here in London at least, for about 50p. 

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1103207648420040242004-12-16T14:19:00.000Z2004-12-16T14:47:29.486Z

So David Blunkett has resigned as British Home Secretary - “Destroyed by the woman he loved,” as the tabloid press puts it in 2-inch high letters today. But his plans for compulsory I.D. cards remain. And glancing at the pictures in today’s press, it seems Tony Blair has drafted in Shrek to achieve the blind man’s vision...of seeing, hearing and sniffing out everything that freeborn Britons

Adrian Ashnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1102255629742022692004-12-05T14:03:00.000Z2004-12-05T14:07:09.743Z

Before he trotted off the countryside to celebrate his father's birthday this weekend, Adrian Ashe penned these notes for the U.K. version of Friday's Daily Reckoning. European-based readers may have seen them already. But if you're on the other side of the pond, they're well worth looking at. - First the fear, now the fraud. Last week, Tony Blair got the Queen to tell her subjects they’ll

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1101914970934768152004-12-01T14:48:00.000Z2004-12-01T17:39:09.826Z

{ed. note: Below I'm pleased to present the latest from Lord Rees-Mogg. And if you start to see new voices popping up, don't be surprised. I'll be explaining more later in the week. regards-- Dan} The countdown to the election in Iraq has begun. It is now two months to January 30th. ashington, supported by London, is determined that there should not be any postponement, though it is

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1101837978922004542004-11-30T18:02:00.000Z2004-11-30T18:07:53.673Z

Here’s a thing. While the dollar’s slide against the euro is making all the headlines, the Esperanto itself is losing value. No, really. Even after the “brutal moves” it’s made versus the greenback over the last 2 months, the Esperanto currency has managed to lose value against nearly all the currencies of its more important trading partners. It’s dropped against both kronas - Norwegian and

Adrian Ashnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1101821219219736132004-11-30T13:53:00.000Z2004-11-30T13:35:58.270Z

The Chinese mineral grab is now an auto-parts grab...in America...and an autoparts BRAND grab in England, with MG Rover. It will soon be the Twinkie grab. More on that in a second. The Chairman of the Hong Kong Chamber of commerce made a comment when I heard him speak in June. He said the Chinese would eventually have to get better at marketing and branding. He also said they would also

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1101813946309937292004-11-30T11:16:00.000Z2004-11-30T11:37:14.003Z

"European elites frequently deprecated gunpowder. By taking the muscle out of killing, powder favored the weak over the strong. It was the weapon of cowards. "The repeated effort by European elites to blame gunpowder for the decline of chivalry was in part a smoke screen to obscure more profound changes in society that had long been undermining the role of the knight. Their objections

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-109334060169905762004-08-24T10:39:00.000+01:002004-08-24T10:43:21.700+01:00

gasprices.bmp

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1090271805796947272004-07-19T22:16:00.000+01:002004-07-19T22:16:45.796+01:00

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085561343334630312004-05-26T09:49:00.000+01:002004-05-26T09:49:03.333+01:00

Nationalism, Democracy, and the People's Livelyhood, inscribed above the three arches to the entrace of the mausoleum proper. Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite...of the people, by the people, for the people. Big ideas come in threes apparently.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085561203747604562004-05-26T09:46:00.001+01:002004-05-26T09:46:43.746+01:00

It's hazy in Nanking, and in all of China in fact. But the setting here is gorgeous. And for a few hours, you could hear birds.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085561165151508642004-05-26T09:46:00.000+01:002004-05-26T09:46:05.150+01:00

292 steps to the top.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085560922072075872004-05-26T09:42:00.000+01:002004-05-26T09:42:02.073+01:00

Took the train from Shanghai to Najing today. Nanjing was the capital for six separate dynasties. More on that in some notes. Here, pictures from the mausoleum of Dr. Sun Yat Sen. More on him later too.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489388411310492004-05-25T13:49:00.001+01:002004-05-25T13:49:48.410+01:00

The evolution of a good idea...traders at the Shanghai gold exchange, taken from the floor of the exchange by yours truly.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489341852251402004-05-25T13:49:00.000+01:002004-05-25T13:49:01.853+01:00

The evolution of a failed idea...I bought this as a paper cut icon at a museum down by the river. It's for sale, not display only.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489280107864342004-05-25T13:48:00.000+01:002004-05-25T13:48:00.106+01:00

Big Vegas...Times Square Cubed...the New America?

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489232602866232004-05-25T13:47:00.000+01:002004-05-25T13:47:12.603+01:00

The bended and glowing elbow of the Bund at night.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489195467874532004-05-25T13:46:00.001+01:002004-05-25T13:46:35.466+01:00

The skyline at sunset in Pudong.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489164166563802004-05-25T13:46:00.000+01:002004-05-25T13:46:04.166+01:00

The Grand Hyatt...all eighty eight stories of it...looking...grand.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085489132182932072004-05-25T13:45:00.000+01:002004-05-25T13:45:32.183+01:00

Shanghai from the American Club after dinner...and a few beers.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085373194379883262004-05-24T05:33:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:33:14.380+01:00

Me working from the Hong Kong office...or me testing out some office furniture at the Lamex showroom in Hong Kong. Lamex needs capital, but its goal is to expand in China. I asked its CEO if she worried about "fair trade" legislation in the U.S. hurting future U.S. exports. She said the company didn't "dump" its products on the U.S. market. They're not much cheaper than alternatives. Plus, it's

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085373027809300652004-05-24T05:30:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:30:27.810+01:00

Just before the neon got really cranked up. I'll snap some more colorful pictures this evening.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372991361644152004-05-24T05:29:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:29:51.360+01:00

The guide didn't know what this monument commemorated. But this icon is in stark contrast to the neon and glass all up and down the Shanghai skyline. The guide did note that tourists from the countryside now come to Shanghai, like gawkers in Times Square. The significance? Disposable income...

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372830343560872004-05-24T05:27:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:27:10.343+01:00

Busy busy busy.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372786338661082004-05-24T05:26:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:26:26.336+01:00

By Sunday the sky finally cleared and the sun came out, just in time for a bus ride to the airport. Not the best pictures, but I managed to snap a few of Hong Kong's harbor, the third largest in the world. Lots of loading docks and container ships...and lots of containers.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372708869925372004-05-24T05:25:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:25:08.870+01:00

China, one of Saturday's speakers said, needs to get better at "branding" its products to compete on the world market. The day will come, he hopes, when made in China is not just a sign of something produced at low cost, but quality as well. It worked for Japan. A good start at branding is beer. Your editor felt compelled to snap a picture of Hong Kong beer. I also did some quality assurance

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372607926472612004-05-24T05:23:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:23:27.926+01:00

A garden in front of the Marriott in Hong Kong. Met there on Saturday with Chinese companies looking for investors.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372533803037772004-05-24T05:22:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:22:13.803+01:00

Another sharper image of Hong Kong. Too bad it was gray outside.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372495061756912004-05-24T05:21:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:21:35.060+01:00

Cleaned up this picture across Hong Kong harbor, taken from the Kowloon side. You can take the Star Ferry across for a few bucks. At night, it's like Vegas on steriods.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085372413265426772004-05-24T05:20:00.000+01:002004-05-24T05:20:13.266+01:00

On the Bund side of the Yangtze river. What the locals call "New Shanghai" is in the background, with the radio tower (the Jetson's looking thing) directly behind me and the Grand Hyatt to my right. Lots of commerical real estate going up here, but the skyline can't compete with Hong Kong..yet.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085146998074997452004-05-21T14:43:00.000+01:002004-05-21T14:43:18.073+01:00

Nope. No sign of him.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085146916333978692004-05-21T14:41:00.000+01:002004-05-21T14:41:56.333+01:00

Or he's hiding in this bear.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085146838668835112004-05-21T14:40:00.000+01:002004-05-21T14:40:38.666+01:00

Maybe he went for a swim?

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085146747568388652004-05-21T14:39:00.000+01:002004-05-21T14:39:07.566+01:00

Is he here?

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085146662518383942004-05-21T14:37:00.000+01:002004-05-21T14:37:42.516+01:00

Where's MJ?

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1085003597439705202004-05-19T22:41:00.000+01:002004-05-19T23:14:05.400+01:00

And so it begins dear reader. I hope you'll excuse my sporadic (non existent) blogging over the last three weeks. In that time, I've been from Colorado to Paris, and back to Baltimore. And before I board the plane I'd like to bang out a few notes about the market and some open positions. First, though, I leave for China today. Hong Kong to be precise. I'm hoping I'll be able to write to you

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1083933007579992802004-05-07T13:30:00.000+01:002004-05-07T13:33:21.483+01:00

Does the Fed really look at wages when deciding whether to raise rates? History suggests it does. The below from Greg Weldon today on the very issue. The issue is the role of final (consumer) demand on inflation. Without final demand...inflation can't really heat up (at least that appeared to be true until China came into play.) The Fed may find itself in a bizarre new world--unable to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1083928952848433862004-05-07T12:22:00.000+01:002004-05-07T12:25:46.780+01:00

A note from Lord Rees Mogg over in London....always on the lookout for long-term investment strategies. Strategic Insider – 6 May 2004 – William Rees-Mogg In the 1950s, when I was first working in London, Ambassador Jock Whitney was the U.S. Envoy in London. He was a Republican and he represented President Eisenhower. He had quite a difficult time; though he was personally popular,and what

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1083923915968674812004-05-07T10:58:00.000+01:002004-05-07T11:01:50.076+01:00

The problem with owning an asset that's actually someone else's promise to pay is that…well sometimes they don't. According to an article in today's Wall Street Journal, Fannie Mae may be forced by its regulator to restate earnings—to the tune of $500 million—because of higher loan defaults that it has so far reported. The Journal article says, "The order affects Fannie's $8 billion portfolio

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1083922349960489852004-05-07T10:32:00.000+01:002004-05-07T10:35:43.716+01:00

From the folks at Options Edge... "...stocks are expensive and speculative fever is high. Barron’s "Big Money" poll in the latest issue shows 61% of the professionals interviewed to be "bullish" or "very bullish." As indicated in the same article, the track record of these professionals is not something to hang your hat on. Could the much-anticipated Google IPO mark the high much the same way

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1083762575224497812004-05-05T14:09:00.000+01:002004-05-05T14:12:47.356+01:00

Dear Reader, back from the wildnerness and back on the blog beat. Let's hope I'll have less trouble staying in touch from Asia than I did in America. Quite a bit has happened since I last wrote to you. But instead of reviewing what has happened, let me first bring your attention to what's about to happen. The non-farm payrolls report comes out on Friday. Recall that it was the March report

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082295923148638982004-04-18T14:45:00.000+01:002004-04-18T14:48:17.780+01:00

From this week's Barron's "My underlying view is there is too much debt and there was never any buildup of savings during the recession, so there is really no pent-up demand. The consumer isn't in a position to do much. That is what all the bears say. Then I sit and look at the money supply and I see that when mortgage refinancings are booming and tax cuts or tax refunds are hitting, the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082219178873829902004-04-17T17:26:00.000+01:002004-04-17T17:32:46.106+01:00

Reflation Rally Fading, But AU Firm Short Term Bearishness on the OEX Picking Up Pace The 50-day moving average in the OEX bullish percentage chart is threatening to cross the 100-day moving average. It's a bearish sign that could signal a sell off in the OEX and OEF, the exchange traded fund that tracks OEX. When Moving Averages Cross, Buy Puts on OEF Two of the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082119764882282042004-04-16T13:49:00.000+01:002004-04-16T13:55:40.123+01:00

Old Man Dollar is preening like the prettiest currency in the pageant, pretending to be something he's not, namely a strong currency. But does this dollar rally have legs? The chart below suggests no...but if the dollar breaks out of that downward channel...look for it to settle again at about 1.14...the level from which it began its last large down move. A lot of traders have spent the last

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082112614845530902004-04-16T11:50:00.000+01:002004-04-16T11:53:47.903+01:00

"We expect the demand for single-family homes to remain quite strong in coming months, despite the rise in long-term mortgage rates, as growth in employment and household income accelerates. Indeed, the economic and demographic foundations for housing are very solid, supporting both home sales and house prices. Theories of house price 'bubbles' are bound to be discredited in the process."

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082047990870449952004-04-15T17:53:00.000+01:002004-04-15T17:56:02.500+01:00

From Bloomberg: "The prospect of increased borrowing costs and diminishing tax refunds heightens the importance of job growth to buttress consumer spending, economists said."

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082047845285394642004-04-15T17:50:00.000+01:002004-04-15T17:56:58.670+01:00

Thursday, April 15th, 2004 London, England Dear Reader, I'd meant to talk more about the Fed's current dilemma, but ended up doing more reading than writing. Hopefully the weekend edition of SI will give a succinct version of what I've found. I'll let you know. Meanwhile, you saw more evidence today of the horns of the dilemma that Fed finds itself on. On one horn, financial assets are

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1082033198746367312004-04-15T13:46:00.000+01:002004-04-15T13:49:30.263+01:00

Below is an image of what happens to interest rate sensitive stocks. It's a three-year chart for RWR, an exchange traded fund that tracks the performance of the Wilshire REIT index. Unfortunately, you can't buy put options on RWR, or on IYR, an ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Real Estate Index. Could this happen to other sectors as well? Homebuilders? Mortgage lenders? Financials? Yes.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081974619070450772004-04-14T21:30:00.000+01:002004-04-14T21:52:50.310+01:00

In today’s Insider: ***The Consumer is the Key ***Gold is Okay ***A Credit Crunch a Comin' Dear Reader, Investors convinced that the recent spate of good economic news will cause the Federal reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year. They're dead wrong. But that's okay…it's a great opportunity for you to buy gold and precious metals at a discount, and make some short

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081882782503868852004-04-13T19:59:00.000+01:002004-04-13T20:02:32.123+01:00

Another banner month for red ink....total for the fiscal year now stands just shy of $300 billion.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081880753991022892004-04-13T19:25:00.000+01:002004-04-13T19:28:44.030+01:00

Dear Reader, First, my apologies for the irregular blogging schedule in the last two weeks. Sometimes you have to do a little less writing and a little more reading and thinking if you’re going to have anything worth saying. Today, I’ll get back on track. However, I do want to let you know that next week I’ll be travelling to Dallas for an Options Conference so there may be some small

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081625501045570772004-04-10T20:31:00.000+01:002004-04-10T20:34:28.060+01:00

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081600331573903572004-04-10T13:32:00.000+01:002004-04-10T13:34:58.280+01:00

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081357464682440372004-04-07T18:04:00.000+01:002004-04-07T18:07:08.966+01:00

Last week (and in the April issue) I mentioned that one of the odd side effects of so much money sloshing around in the financial economy is the creation of "flash bubbles." These are bubbles created when the market spots something that's relatively undervalued. The problem is, there's very little in the world that's ABSOLUTELY undervalued. And so when a trickle turns into a torrent, it can

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081356130813351572004-04-07T17:42:00.000+01:002004-04-07T17:44:54.560+01:00

Big Media is again dropping the ball on Iraq. The Christian Science Monitor, though, has a great piece here on the origins of the current events. Here's the money paragraph: For now, US attempts to work with Sadr are over, and he’ll probably be arrested soon. But his arrest could stir up more anti-American anger among Iraq’s Shiites. As I talk to more people here on the streets, I get the

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081187044558530932004-04-05T18:44:00.000+01:002004-04-05T18:48:34.356+01:00

Last week Lord Rees Mogg and I sat down to talk Constitutions. Europe has drafted one. It’s now deciding how to go about ratifying it, which has turned out to be no easy task. Lord Rees Mogg Explains why below. But indulge for a moment and allow me to offer three additional reasons. 1) English Liberalism versus French Liberalism. The English liberal tradition is based on just that…

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081178612825823672004-04-05T16:23:00.000+01:002004-04-05T16:33:52.623+01:00

A lot of readers have written in asking me what I think about Iraq. I'll do you one better. Go to http://doc.weblogs.com/2004/04/04#rollingIraq and you can find out from Iraqis themselves what's going on. Some of it's good. Some of it's bad. All of it looks honest to me. I guarantee you'll find it better than CBS, the Washington Post, or CNN and the New York Times. I try to avoid having

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081174708626558592004-04-05T15:18:00.000+01:002004-04-05T15:23:50.700+01:00

Fair enough, dear reader. You can't keep saying it's a jobless recovery if the jobs show up, right? Right. That said, nothing in Friday's employment report casts doubt on several of our investment arguments. Namely, average hourly earnings are still disinflating, high-income manufacturing jobs (when they ARE being replaced) are being replaced by lower income service jobs, and consumer wage

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081172978878519332004-04-05T14:49:00.000+01:002004-04-05T14:52:20.653+01:00

"The current deterioration in the U.S. fiscal position and the acute decline in the net national savings rate represent risks to the financial system and the economy as a whole," Fed Governor Timothy Geithner.

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1081172776569343612004-04-05T14:46:00.000+01:002004-04-05T14:48:58.310+01:00

Will the bullish jobs report be seen as the END of the bull market rally and the resumption of the bear market? The chart bellow says "yes." It's a five-year chart of the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (TMWX). From its high of 14,751 to its low of 7,342, the index lost 50% and 7,409 points. Since making that low in October of 2002, it's recovered half its bear market loss (in terms of

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1080649618661662962004-03-30T13:26:00.000+01:002004-03-30T13:29:34.483+01:00

Within the commodities complex, you have some commodities in bull markets, and others in not so bullish markets. In fact, while the general trend of commodity prices will be up, you'll also see exceptions to the rule. Copper may be one of them, as the chart indicates. The chart is below is a one year chart for Southern Peru Copper Corp (PCU). You can see that the 50-day moving average has

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1080317418008548642004-03-26T16:10:00.000Z2004-03-26T16:12:50.106Z

Had a great chat yesterday with Lord Rees Mogg at the Pickering and Chatto offices just down the street. Later, he sent over his contribution to the Insider for this week. As you'll see, it's another bullish argument for oil. However, it's not as bullish for European (and perhaps American) industrial manufacturers. “…Toyota sees China as a rapidly expanding economy, which will continue to

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1080218030259745492004-03-25T12:33:00.000Z2004-03-25T12:37:56.543Z

"The indictment today reminds us that fulfilling individual tax obligations is a legal requirement and those who willfully evade that responsibility will be prosecuted," --Nancy Jardini, overseer of criminal investigations for the Internal Revenue Service, on the indictment of anti-tax author Irwin Schiff or conspiracy to defraud the United States government. Denning comment: how about a

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1079789371745162702004-03-20T13:29:00.000Z2004-03-20T13:31:57.500Z

We interrupt this blog to let you know I'll be away until Thursday of next week (the 25th). I'm on my way to Paris for a baptism (becoming a god father), and then, playing host to my college-aged nephew on his first visit to Europe. See you Thursday. (If something uber urgent happens, I'll be sure to check in.)

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5656219.post-1079728738811011482004-03-19T20:38:00.000Z2004-03-19T20:41:23.890Z

Busy banging out the April issue. But did run across this quote by Kofi Annan on the U.N. Oil-for-food program in Iraq. As I reported in the run-up to the war last spring, the largest recipients of U.N. contracts to do business with Saddam's oil regime were Germany and Russia. There were then, and are now, a lot of rumors of, well...impropriety, Halliburton style. "It is highly possible there

Danielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17635360654207188162noreply@blogger.com0